Weather
Does atmospheric pressure, humidity, or temperature affect the results of a lottery drawing? Lotto Bot explores the possible affects weather can have on the results of a lottery drawing. Below is a prediction based on the weather forecast for the next PowerBall® drawing. Let’s explore this further…
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The Theory
Weather Affects Results
Lottery drawings involve mechanical devices with lottery balls that are randomly selected. The theory posits that weather conditions might affect these mechanisms and balls in a manner that influences the randomness of the draw.
Material Properties and Environmental Conditions
Lottery balls are usually made from materials such as plastic or rubber. These materials can be sensitive to changes in temperature, humidity, and air pressure.
- Temperature: Extreme temperatures can cause materials to expand or contract. For example, if the temperature is very high, plastic balls might become slightly more pliable or change their weight distribution. Conversely, in cold conditions, they might become more brittle or denser.
- Humidity: High humidity levels could cause moisture absorption, slightly altering the weight or texture of the balls. This could impact how they interact within the drawing machine.
- Air Pressure: Changes in air pressure might influence the behavior of the balls when they are agitated or drawn. Lower air pressure could affect the lift or movement of the balls within the drawing drum.
Mechanisms of Impact
- Weight Distribution: Variations in weight due to temperature or humidity changes could affect how balls are distributed in the drum and their likelihood of being drawn.
- Surface Texture: Changes in the surface texture due to moisture or temperature could alter the way balls interact with the drawing mechanism or with each other.
- Ball Dynamics: Variability in ball characteristics might impact their movement within the drum, potentially influencing the randomness of the selection process.
Evidence
To test this theory, Lotto Bot will compare lottery draw outcomes with concurrent weather data. Observing any patterns in the randomness of the draws during different weather conditions to support or refute the theory.
- Collect weather data from the specific time and location of the lottery drawing
- Record that data along with the winning numbers for each drawing
- Find the forecasted weather data for the time and location of the next drawing
- Crunch the data to find similarities between the forecasted weather results and all of the previous records
- Return the most common number groupings based on the analysis
- Profit!
AI Lottery Prediction – Powerball by Weather
Historic reference of the last 10 AI lottery prediction attempts compared to the actual drawings. How close did Lotto Bot get?
The Test
Lotto Bot runs python code because python is the language of AI. This is what some of that code looks like…
Get the next draw date
import datetime
from datetime import timedelta
from datetime import datetime
import pytz
utc=pytz.utc
nextdraw_date = datetime.today()
while nextdraw_date.weekday() != 0:
if nextdraw_date.weekday() == 2:
break
if nextdraw_date.weekday() == 5:
break
else:
nextdraw_date += timedelta(1)
nextdraw_date = nextdraw_date.replace(hour=22, minute=0)
nextdraw_enddate = nextdraw_date.replace(hour=23, minute=0)
nextdraw_date_utcepoch = int(nextdraw_date.astimezone(utc).timestamp())
Get weather forecast for next draw date
import requests
import json
response = requests.request("GET", "[some weather API]")
forecast_data = response.json()
try:
Prediction.objects.update_or_create(
draw_date = str(nextdraw_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")),
draw_night = str(nextdraw_date.weekday()),
Barometer = forecast_data['Barometer'],
Dewpoint = forecast_data['Dewpoint'],
Heat_Index = forecast_data['Heat_Index'],
Hygrometer = forecast_data['Hygrometer'],
Thermometer = forecast_data['Thermometer'],
Percipitation = forecast_data['Percipitation'],
WindDirection = forecast_data['WindDirection'],
CloudCover = forecast_data['CloudCover'],
WindSpeed = forecast_data['WindSpeed'],
MoonPhase = forecast_data['MoonPhase'],
)
Compare the forecast to the data
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import sklearn
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
from sklearn import linear_model
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score
from sklearn.impute import SimpleImputer
# put rows in a dataframe
df_w = pd.DataFrame([Lottery Drawing History Data])
for column in df_w:
df_w[column] = pd.to_numeric(df_w[column], errors='coerce')
df_w.head()
# Split the data into independent and dependent variables
X = df_w.iloc[:,6:16].values
y = df_w.iloc[:,0:6].values
# Creating the Training and Test set from data
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size = 0.2)#, random_state = 69)
# Feature Scaling
scaler = StandardScaler()
X_fit_train = scaler.fit_transform(X_train)
X_fit_test = scaler.transform(X_test)
X_fit = scaler.fit_transform(X)
# Fitting Random Forest Classification to the Training set
RFclassifier = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=24, criterion="entropy", random_state=12)
RFclassifier.fit(X_fit_train, y_train)
# Compare the Test set results for Random Forest Classification
y_pred = RFclassifier.predict(X_fit_test)
accuracyScore = 0
totalMatchScore = 0
for index, pred in enumerate(y_pred):
accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test[index], pred)
accuracyScore += accuracy
comparePOS = list(set(pred[:5]) & set(y_test[index][:5]))
comparePWB = list(set(pred[5:]) & set(y_test[index][5:]))
Artificial intelligence can analyze historical data and patterns to make predictions, but predicting lottery results with 100% accuracy is not possible. Lotteries are designed to be random and unpredictable, making it extremely difficult for any system, including AI, to consistently predict the winning numbers. While AI can analyze past results and identify trends, it cannot guarantee future outcomes in a game of pure chance like a lottery.